Keep track of clinical trial cost and risk

The Clinical Trial Risk Tool analyses the text of your clinical trial protocol with AI to find:
Design issues - is the trial likely to end without delivering informative results? This could be due to underpowering, inadequate statistical analysis
Recommendations - the tool will give you recommendations to improve your trial design
Predicted cost - how much is the trial likely to cost in dollars, based on models of past trials
Itemised per-patient budget and site budget (coming soon!) - a spreadsheet showing itemised costs of procedures calculated from the schedule of events
Compliance with SPIRIT, CONSORT, and FDA rules (coming soon!)

Coming out soon

Clinical Trial Risk Tool Version 2.0

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Clinical Trial Risk Tool

We have developed an AI tool called the Clinical Trial Risk Tool which allows a user to upload a trial protocol and which categorises the protocol as high, medium, or low risk of ending without delivering informative results.

When a pharmaceutical company develops a drug, it needs to pass through several phases of clinical trials before it can be approved by regulators.

Before the trial is run, the drug developer writes a document called a protocol. This contains key information about how long the trial will run for, what is the risk to participants, what kind of treatment is being investigated, etc.

The tool is open-source under MIT licence and it does not save any of your data.

Clinical Trial Risk Tool

The problem is that each protocol is up to 200 pages long and the structure can vary.

Currently, professionals at a funding organisation read the protocols and perform a subjective assessment of the trial’s cost, complexity, and risk of ending uninformatively.

One of the most common causes of a trial ending uninformatively is underpowering. There are several indicators of high risk of uninformativeness which can be identified in a protocol, such as a lack of and or an inadequate statistical analysis plan, use of non-standard endpoints, or the use of cluster randomisation. Low-risk trials are often run by well-known institutions with external funding and an international or intercontinental array of sites. These indicators can be referred to as features or parameters.

This project shows what is possible with natural language processing. The tool may be extended in future to identify a more complete set of cost, complexity, or uninformativeness risk factors.

Benefits or details include

The tool assists a human in assessing the cost, complexity or risk of uninformativeness of a trial, and understanding which factors contribute to the cost, complexity and risk of uninformativeness.
Reviewers are able to assess trials more rapidly.
The tool may augment certain processes in the approval and funding of clinical trials.
The tool could be used to inform stakeholders about the most impactful features for complexity, cost, and informativeness or risk of uninformativeness.
The tool can assist reviewers in assessing trials more consistently.
At present the tool is limited to 2 pathologies: HIV and TB, but it may be extended in future.
The current tool is designed primarily with trials in LMIC countries in mind but will work on trials globally.
Phases 1, 2, 3 and 4 covered.
The tool has been coded in Python and the source code is available on Github under MIT licence.

The risk factors the tool identifies

Pathology
Phase
Is a SAP (statistical analysis plan) present?
Has the effect estimate been disclosed?
Number of subjects?
Number of arms?
Countries of investigation
Trial uses simulation for sample size?
The features are then passed into a scoring formula which scores the protocol from 0 to 100, and then the protocol is flagged as HIGH, MEDIUM or LOW risk
The risk factors the tool identifies

How to cite the Clinical Trial Risk Tool?

If you would like to cite the tool alone, you can cite:

Wood TA and McNair D., Clinical Trial Risk Tool: software application using natural language processing to identify the risk of trial uninformativeness. Gates Open Res 2023, 7:56 doi: 10.12688/gatesopenres.14416.1.

A BibTeX entry for LaTeX users is

@article{Wood_2023,
  doi = {10.12688/gatesopenres.14416.1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.12688%2Fgatesopenres.14416.1},
  year = 2023,
  month = {apr},
  publisher = {F1000 Research Ltd},
  volume = {7},
  pages = {56},
  author = {Thomas A Wood and Douglas McNair},
  title = {Clinical Trial Risk Tool: software application using natural language processing to identify the risk of trial uninformativeness},
  journal = {Gates Open Research}
}

Blog

Articles about the Clinical Trial Risk Tool

Top challenges with clinical trial ethics in 2025

Top challenges with clinical trial ethics in 2025

Guest post by Safeer Khan, Lecturer at Department of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Government College University, Lahore, Pakistan In 2025, clinical trials will continue to be a fundamental element in advancing medical science. Read more about: The Importance of Clinical Trials in Advancing Healthcare. However, as the landscape of medicine evolves, so do the ethical challenges that accompany these trials. The rapid progress of technology and the growing interconnectedness of the world present fresh ethical concerns that need to be tackled.

How to conduct a clinical trial risk assessment - top strategies

How to conduct a clinical trial risk assessment - top strategies

Guest post by Youssef Soliman, medical student at Assiut University and biostatistician Introduction Conducting a clinical trial risk assessment is now a regulatory expectation and a cornerstone of quality management in clinical research. A risk assessment is a systematic process for identifying and evaluating events that could affect the achievement of a trial’s objectives [1]. In practice, this means examining the protocol, procedures, and trial environment to spot hazards to patient safety, data integrity or compliance.

Key risk indicators in clinical studies

Key risk indicators in clinical studies

Guest post by Safeer Khan, Lecturer at Department of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Government College University, Lahore, Pakistan Clinical trials are essential for advancing medical science, yet they are inherently complex and involve a wide range of risks. As a result, effective risk management in clinical trials is crucial to ensuring their successful completion. Among the various approaches to managing these risks, clinical trials Key Risk Indicators (KRIs) have become essential tools. KRIs are precise, measurable metrics that serve as early alerts for potential risk exposures in clinical studies.

Try The Clinical Trial Risk Tool

Clinical Trial Risk Tool